Tomorrow, in the ICC World Cup, India will play South Africa in Melbourne. After India’s performance against Pakistan a week ago, we are expecting that the men in blue will continue to maintain their momentum. However, South Africa is a markedly different opponent than Pakistan and if India were to win this one, they have to fire on all cylinders.
India has played South Africa in the World Cup thrice before - in 1992, 1999 and 2011 and, they have never won against the Proteas. In 1992, at the Adelaide Oval, the match was curtailed to 30 overs each because of rain. Azharuddin scored 79 and Kapil Dev supported him with a quick fire 42 off 29 balls to help India post a respectable score of 180. But the Proteas’ opening pair of Andrew Hudson and Peter Kirsten built a strong partnership and took the game away from India. South Africa won that game by 4 wickets with 5 balls to spare. In 1999, India played South Africa during the English summer in Brighton, a relatively smaller venue. In that game, Ganguly anchored the innings with a patient 97. He was run out to a throw from Jhonty Rhodes, probably one of the best fielders in the history of cricket. India managed to score 253 and Srinath got two early wickets – both the openers Herschelle Gibbs and Gary Kirsten were sent back in the 7th over for 22 runs. However, Jacques Kallis stood tall on that day, scored a marvelous 96 off 128 balls and took the game away from India. South Africa won by 4 wickets and 2 overs and 4 balls to spare. I still have bad feelings about India losing to South Africa in 2011. In that game in Nagpur, the openers Sehwag and Tendulkar game India a dream start – India were 142 in 17.4 overs when Sehwag was bowled by Faf du Plessis. Tendulkar scored a century (in Cricketing terms a Nelson i.e., 111) in that game and built a strong foundation with Gambhir after Sehwag’s departure. But, India lost 9 wickets in a span of 9 overs and were restricted to 296. In contrast South Africa started slowly but, eventually accelerated towards the end with some powerful hitting from JP Duminy, Johan Botha and Robin Peterson and, won by 3 wickets with 2 balls to spare. I remember being extremely upset after that game because after such a wonderful performance of the Indian opening pair, it hurts to lose a game because of such a colossal collapse of the middle order.
If we were to analyze the batting and bowling performance of Indians and the Proteas in the three World Cup fixtures in 1992, 1999 and 2011 by taking the historical performance of the respective players based on all the games played up to the meet, we can clearly say that in 1992 and 1999, South Africa had a distinct advantage. In 2011, the Statistical advantages were split – India had the advantage in bowling whereas South Africa excelled in batting (see chart A below).
The story of 2015 is that India has a small advantage in batting but, South Africa has a significant advantage over India in bowling. The economy rate of the Proteas is half a run better per over which means that in a 50 over game, they have an advantage of about 25 runs. Also, South Africa has a far better strike rate than India – on an average they take 6 less balls to take a wicket compared to the Indians.
I also compared the individual performances of the batsmen from the two teams (see Chart B below). It is pretty obvious that AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla and David Miller are the danger men. de Villiers has a strike rate close to 100 and an average of 52 runs per game. Hashim Amla has the highest average amongst all the batsmen from both the teams and similarly, David Miller has the highest strike rate amongst them all. India has to restrict at least 2 of these 3 if they were to give themselves a decent chance to win.
The analysis of bowling figures for the two teams is in line with what we already know. The quartet of Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel, Vernon Philander and Imran Tahir are the best amongst the bowlers from both the countries (see Chart C below).
As I have said above, the key to winning this game is that India has to fire on all cylinders which implies a solid opening partnership followed by middle order consolidation, restrict at least 2 out of 3 amongst the trio of de Villiers, Amla and Miller, maintain the line and length in bowling and refrain from giving too many loose deliveries. India has won against South Africa in recent times. In Champion’s Trophy in England, India beat South Africa by 26 runs. Shikahr Dhawan scored 114 and together with Rohit Sharma, the opening pair put up 127 runs. A late innings cameo from Ravindra Jadeja (47 off 29 balls) helped India post a score of 331 runs. Even though de Villiers scored 70, Amla was restricted to 22 runs and David Miller was out for a duck. India's batting and bowling performance in that game is exactly in line with my analysis here and, the result was in India’s favor.
I am forecasting one cracker of a contest and I believe India can win against South Africa just like it did at Sophia Garders, Cardiff during Champion’s Trophy in 2013.
Best of Luck Men in Blue!
India has played South Africa in the World Cup thrice before - in 1992, 1999 and 2011 and, they have never won against the Proteas. In 1992, at the Adelaide Oval, the match was curtailed to 30 overs each because of rain. Azharuddin scored 79 and Kapil Dev supported him with a quick fire 42 off 29 balls to help India post a respectable score of 180. But the Proteas’ opening pair of Andrew Hudson and Peter Kirsten built a strong partnership and took the game away from India. South Africa won that game by 4 wickets with 5 balls to spare. In 1999, India played South Africa during the English summer in Brighton, a relatively smaller venue. In that game, Ganguly anchored the innings with a patient 97. He was run out to a throw from Jhonty Rhodes, probably one of the best fielders in the history of cricket. India managed to score 253 and Srinath got two early wickets – both the openers Herschelle Gibbs and Gary Kirsten were sent back in the 7th over for 22 runs. However, Jacques Kallis stood tall on that day, scored a marvelous 96 off 128 balls and took the game away from India. South Africa won by 4 wickets and 2 overs and 4 balls to spare. I still have bad feelings about India losing to South Africa in 2011. In that game in Nagpur, the openers Sehwag and Tendulkar game India a dream start – India were 142 in 17.4 overs when Sehwag was bowled by Faf du Plessis. Tendulkar scored a century (in Cricketing terms a Nelson i.e., 111) in that game and built a strong foundation with Gambhir after Sehwag’s departure. But, India lost 9 wickets in a span of 9 overs and were restricted to 296. In contrast South Africa started slowly but, eventually accelerated towards the end with some powerful hitting from JP Duminy, Johan Botha and Robin Peterson and, won by 3 wickets with 2 balls to spare. I remember being extremely upset after that game because after such a wonderful performance of the Indian opening pair, it hurts to lose a game because of such a colossal collapse of the middle order.
If we were to analyze the batting and bowling performance of Indians and the Proteas in the three World Cup fixtures in 1992, 1999 and 2011 by taking the historical performance of the respective players based on all the games played up to the meet, we can clearly say that in 1992 and 1999, South Africa had a distinct advantage. In 2011, the Statistical advantages were split – India had the advantage in bowling whereas South Africa excelled in batting (see chart A below).
Chart A: Comparative advantage of India and South Africa in previous World Cup encounters
The story of 2015 is that India has a small advantage in batting but, South Africa has a significant advantage over India in bowling. The economy rate of the Proteas is half a run better per over which means that in a 50 over game, they have an advantage of about 25 runs. Also, South Africa has a far better strike rate than India – on an average they take 6 less balls to take a wicket compared to the Indians.
I also compared the individual performances of the batsmen from the two teams (see Chart B below). It is pretty obvious that AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla and David Miller are the danger men. de Villiers has a strike rate close to 100 and an average of 52 runs per game. Hashim Amla has the highest average amongst all the batsmen from both the teams and similarly, David Miller has the highest strike rate amongst them all. India has to restrict at least 2 of these 3 if they were to give themselves a decent chance to win.
Chart B: Comparative Stats of Indian and South African Batsmen
The analysis of bowling figures for the two teams is in line with what we already know. The quartet of Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel, Vernon Philander and Imran Tahir are the best amongst the bowlers from both the countries (see Chart C below).
Chart C: Comparative Stats of Indian and South African Bowlers
As I have said above, the key to winning this game is that India has to fire on all cylinders which implies a solid opening partnership followed by middle order consolidation, restrict at least 2 out of 3 amongst the trio of de Villiers, Amla and Miller, maintain the line and length in bowling and refrain from giving too many loose deliveries. India has won against South Africa in recent times. In Champion’s Trophy in England, India beat South Africa by 26 runs. Shikahr Dhawan scored 114 and together with Rohit Sharma, the opening pair put up 127 runs. A late innings cameo from Ravindra Jadeja (47 off 29 balls) helped India post a score of 331 runs. Even though de Villiers scored 70, Amla was restricted to 22 runs and David Miller was out for a duck. India's batting and bowling performance in that game is exactly in line with my analysis here and, the result was in India’s favor.
I am forecasting one cracker of a contest and I believe India can win against South Africa just like it did at Sophia Garders, Cardiff during Champion’s Trophy in 2013.
Best of Luck Men in Blue!
