In India, NOTA i.e., ‘None of the Above’ was introduced as a
choice for the Electronic Voting Machines and Postal Ballots in the General
Elections in 2014. It is widely accepted that a NOTA vote is lack of endorsement
by the voter for any of the candidates contesting in a given constituency. Regarding
NOTA, the Election Commission of India has clarified the following:
From the frequency distribution we
can see that in the 2014 General Elections, in 417 constituencies out of a
total of 543 the NOTA votes were 1.5% or lower. In addition, there are 25
constituencies in which the percentage of NOTA votes were 2.5% or higher. I
decided to look at the characteristics of these constituencies which recorded
much higher than average NOTA votes. Table II below shows the top ten
constituencies with highest percentage of NOTA votes.
- Even in the extreme case when the NOTA votes in a constituency are higher than any of the candidates, the candidate securing the highest votes will be declared the winner. In other words, as per the norms of first past the post, NOTA cannot be declared the winner.
- NOTA votes will not be considered
for forfeiture of deposits in an election. Please note that in an election
in India, if a candidate fails to secure at least 1/6th
(16.67%) of the valid votes cast, he or she forfeits the security deposit.
In the general elections in 2014,
roughly 1.08% of the votes cast were NOTA. This amounts to 5.99 million votes
out of a total of 547 million votes. Some of the basic statistics pertaining to
NOTA votes are in the table below.
Table I: Summary Statistics of NOTA
Votes by Constituency, 2014 General Elections
As we can see, the average NOTA votes
in a constituency were 1.12%. In a large democracy like India which has more
than 800 million voters, such NOTA votes represent a very small percentage.
Therefore, there could always be an attempt to brush the NOTA votes under the
carpet or to treat them as having nuisance value at best. However, we can also
see from the table above that the maximum NOTA votes in a constituency were
slightly higher than 5% and that the 90th percentile is 2.4%. As
with any statistical analysis, it is important to look at the frequency
distribution instead of just the mean. The frequency distribution of the
percentage of NOTA votes in all Lok Sabha constituencies is presented below in
Chart A.
Chart A: Frequency distribution of the percentage of NOTA votes in All
Lok Sabha Constituencies
Table II: Top 10 Constituencies
which recorded the highest percentage of NOTA Votes in 2014 General Elections
It is quite apparent from the table able that these top ten
constituencies are all in the reserved category and 8 out of these 10 are
reserved for Scheduled Tribes. In addition, of the top 25 constituencies by
highest percentage of NOTA votes, 17 are reserved; 3 for Scheduled Castes and 14
for Scheduled Tribes. And of the top 50, 30 are reserved; 7 for Scheduled
Castes and 23 for Scheduled Tribes. One can thus draw a definite conclusion
that in the constituencies reserved for Scheduled Tribes, the percentage of
NOTA votes have been higher than the norm. It is also noteworthy to point out
that the Nilgiris constituency in Tamil Nadu which recorded the second highest
proportion of NOTA votes in the country is the home of the Badaga tribe. This tribe
has been agitating to be recognized as a Scheduled Tribe for a long time.
I decided to go one step further and analyze the frequency
distribution of NOTA Vote % for the reserved and general constituencies. The objective
was to evaluate if the distribution of seats with different NOTA Vote percentages
is markedly different in reserved seats versus the general category ones. From
the distribution (see Chart B), it is quite evident that the NOTA Votes cast in
seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes is significantly different than the general
seats as well those seats reserved for Scheduled Castes.
Chart B: Frequency distribution of the percentage of NOTA votes in for
General and Reserved Constituencies
Let’s take for example the constituencies where the
percentage of NOTA votes were between 2.0 and 2.5%. As evident from the chart above,
in less than 10% of the general constituencies and those reserved for Scheduled
Castes, the proportion of NOTA votes were in the range 2.0 to 2.5%. By contrast
in constituencies reserved for Scheduled Tribes, slightly more than 25% of them
recorded NOTA votes in that range of 2.0 to 2.5%. Next, let us consider those
constituencies where the percentage of NOTA votes were 0.5 to 1.0%. In the
general constituencies and the ones reserved for Scheduled Castes, more than
35% of the constituencies recorded NOTA votes between 0.5 and 1.0%. By contrast
in constituencies reserved for Scheduled Tribes, in only about 5% of the
constituencies, the proportion of NOTA votes were in the range 0.5 to 1.0%.
Finally, we look at the proportion of NOTA votes in constituencies
reserved for Scheduled Tribes in all the states where there is at least 1 seat reserved
for the Scheduled Tribes. We then compare the proportion of NOTA votes in these
reserved constituencies to the proportion of NOTA votes in general constituencies
and the ones reserved for Scheduled Castes (see Table III below).
Table III: Comparison of NOTA vote % in constituencies reserved for ST
versus other constituencies
From this table it is evident in every single state where
there is more than 1 seat reserved for the Scheduled Tribes, the proportion of
NOTA votes has been significantly higher as compared to the other
constituencies.
In Gujarati, the elder brother is affectionately referred to
as ‘Mota Bhai’. I want to borrow this
phrase and make an impassioned plea not to ignore the NOTA votes in the
constituencies reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. Even with a low percentage of
NOTA votes, the Scheduled Tribes in India are conveying a message. It could be
that they are genuinely unhappy with the candidates who are in fray and hence,
decide to cast a NOTA vote. But I fear that if they casting a NOTA vote because
they feel marginalized in the economy and polity of modern India, then it is
unfortunate and is probably leading to an incendiary situation. Mota Bhai, the least we can do is to
understand the root cause and try to address it.